Labour narrowly held Holborn as the Greens surged. In Tower Hamlets, where it beat them by just 231 votes in May, Labour could fall to third by 2030.
From Camden to Tower Hamlets: A Tale of Two Elections?
Labour held Holborn and St Pancras on Thursday. But look at what it took. A new Prime Minister still enjoying his first months, a well-known local candidate and the party’s full campaign effort only just kept a seat Labour has held since 1983. The Greens still gained more than 20 points.
If that is a Labour win in inner London today, Labour in Tower Hamlets should worry about May 2030. By then voters will have tired of the new government, and rising fuel and borrowing costs will have hit their pockets. The Greens will have had four years to build on this year’s gains.
A Narrow Hold
As the Evening Standard reported, Labour won by 3,364 votes, or 12.4 points: its smallest majority since the seat was created. About 13 points swung from Labour to the Greens.
In 2024 the Greens came third here with 10.4%, according to ITV News. On Thursday, the Green Party says, their share rose by about 22 points. That gave Zack Polanski roughly a third of the vote, the party’s second-best by-election result after Gorton and Denton in February.
Labour could hardly have asked for better conditions. Andy Burnham campaigned in the seat. Labour’s candidate, Sagal Abdi-Wali, leads Camden Council, and the bookmakers made her favourite. National polls put Labour level with Reform or ahead. Even so, the Greens cut Labour’s majority to its lowest in 43 years.
Tower Hamlets: Labour Is Already Fighting For Second Place
Labour does not run Tower Hamlets; Lutfur Rahman does. So Labour’s risk there is not losing the council but dropping out of the race. May 2026 showed how close that is.
In the mayoral election, the council’s official results show Labour beat the Greens to second place by 231 votes, on a turnout of 42.4%:
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lutfur Rahman | Aspire | 35,679 | 38.8% |
| Sirajul Islam | Labour | 19,454 | 21.1% |
| Hirra Khan Adeogun | Green | 19,223 | 20.9% |
| John Bullard | Reform UK | 7,153 | 7.8% |
On the council, Labour fell from 19 seats in 2022 to single figures. PollCheck’s tally and the Tower Hamlets Slice both record a clear Aspire majority, with the Greens up from one seat to five. In Bethnal Green East, the ward results show every Green candidate beating every Labour one.
This matters for 2030. Voters who want an alternative to Rahman now have two left-leaning parties running neck and neck. Holborn shows which way voters move while Labour governs: towards the Greens. If even a few of Labour’s remaining voters switch, Labour falls to third in the mayoral race and could all but vanish from the council.
The Green Vote In London Is Holding
Labour has risen in the polls since Burnham took over. As Left Foot Forward notes, analysts trace most of that gain to 2024 Labour voters returning from the Greens. YouGov’s mid-September poll put the Greens at 11% nationally, ten points below their March peak.
In London, though, the Green vote has held. YouGov’s September seat projection, reported by the Evening Standard, gave the Greens no London MPs but put them second in 31 of the capital’s 75 seats. YouGov’s head of international political research said the party is clearly building a following in the city. A More in Common poll found the Greens second in 21 London seats, ready to gain if Burnham loses his hold on the left.
A party that comes second in 31 seats while a new Prime Minister is at his most popular is not in retreat. It is close behind Labour, waiting for that popularity to fade. Holborn has now shown it in real votes.
Hard Times Ahead For The Government
The economy will not help Labour. Since the Iran war began in late February, IFR reports, the Strait of Hormuz has been all but closed and the price of Brent crude oil has risen by about 35%. Britain imports much of its energy, so higher oil prices quickly push up the cost of living.
The government now pays more to borrow. AJ Bell records that in September the interest rate on 30-year government bonds reached 5.89%, the highest since 1998; on 10-year bonds it reached about 5.22%, the highest since 2008. One bond analyst writing in IFA Magazine reckons that each extra percentage point adds about £10 billion a year to the government’s interest bill by 2030.
The Treasury must find that money by raising taxes, cutting spending or both. We will see its first choices in the 28 October Budget. Councils are squeezed too: auditors have warned, the Tower Hamlets Slice reports, that the borough is heading for a £19 million overspend. In a borough with some of the worst child poverty in Britain, a government that has to cut and tax will push voters towards the party on its left.
The Road To 2030
In Tower Hamlets, Labour and the Greens are already level. In Holborn, the Green vote surged even with Labour at its strongest. Across London, YouGov puts the Greens a close second in many seats. And the economy will make the government less popular, not more. Labour in Tower Hamlets has four years to find an answer. On this evidence, and with a controversial Abdal Ullah as leader, it has not yet found one.
On the 7th of October 2026, following the hearing of a petition. Tower Hamlets Council has agreed to open an investigation, implicating, Labour leader, Cllr. Abdal Ullah into the use of council assets in an apparent breach of established policies and procedures.
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